I Simulated the Spurs vs Knicks NBA Finals Matchup 100 Times in NBA 2K26 and This Is What Happened
It's closer than you might expect.
As an NBA fan overseas with no horse in the race, I have never been this excited to watch just plain good team basketball this year. After watching both the ECF and WCF, it’ll be roughly the same, as the Cavs, Knicks, Thunder, and Spurs all play good team basketball.
Now that the finals are set between the Spurs and the Knicks, I had no idea who has the advantage. Based on watching all the games and a subjective eye test, the Spurs do look like the stronger team. However, the New York Knicks are also on fire, having won 11 straight and not lost in a month, and look unbeatable. So, I ran the matchup in NBA 2K26 100 times to see who wins a seven-game series and who has the edge. Here’s how it went.
The San Antonio Spurs Won, But It Was Close
The results were close. The San Antonio Spurs won 58 7-game series simulations while the New York Knicks only won 42. There were only 11 sweeps, with SAS sweeping 8 while the NYK only had 3.
NBA 2K26 simulations are not very realistic when it comes to the real game, but I did try to tweak the settings to make it as realistic as possible, using All-Star difficulty (I believe lower offensive sliders from Superstar or Hall of Fame difficulties would give too much unrealistic advantage to the SAS).
In these simulations, Victor Wembanyama averaged 31.2 PPG, 13.1 RPG, and 4.8 BPG, which is absolutely massive and way above his current playoff averages. He does have tougher matchups against Karl Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson compared to Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
The most common outcome was also the Spurs winning in 6 games (22 times). However, the matchups are extremely close, as teams averaged 116.4PPG and 113.1PPG for the San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks, respectively.
It is hard to treat these simulations as truth, but we can get some ideas on how the series could potentially go. The simulations don’t take into account a lot of real-life factors. I mean, even Mitchell Robinson injured his finger (pinky) outside of the games for whatever reason, at the time of writing.
Victor Wembanyama doesn’t alter shots even remotely close in NBA 2K26 compared to the NBA. Karl Anthony Towns is currently averaging 16.9 PPG in the 2025-2026 NBA playoffs but averaged a whopping 24.7 PPG in the simulations. Also, considering how well some of the SAS players have been playing and their respective NBA 2K player ratings, it does seem like the SAS should be even better in NBA 2K26 if the ratings were more up to date.
Dylan Harper has been a crucial player, offering extremely efficient production with limited minutes, with just an 81 player rating. This was against the best defensive team in the NBA, the OKC, and anyone watching the games would tell you that Dylan Harper should be rated way higher than 81.
With the way the Spurs handled Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander, you would think they could lock down and put the clamps on Brunson even better. However, as the saying goes, everyone is better than Jalen Brunson until it’s ready to be better than Jalen Brunson.
These simulations are just fun to see, but if you ask me, I’m rooting for the New York Knicks, but wouldn’t be disappointed if the Spurs win it all this year. For the Knicks fan who feels anxious reading this, I believe the Cleveland Cavaliers looked extremely strong this year, and the Knicks easily swept them. It’s hard to put a ceiling on the New York Knicks right now, so anything can happen, which makes this year’s NBA Finals even more enjoyable to watch.
